Europa Conference League · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x386cb928af70dee56c8e9f9305562833bb30d4290c3b95fa807eba0f97055300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,280 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 6,645$3,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,989.74 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Over | 39c | 2,600$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.98 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 2,328$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.22 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 1,537$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.47 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -11.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 45c | 999.98$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 33c | 999.97$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 61c | 824.55$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…fa2fbacked Over | 71c | 709.03$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 71c | 709.03$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Under | 74c | 671.21$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.21 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 30c | 656.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Over | 55c | 632.21$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 72c | 401.39$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 31c | 336.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…367dbacked Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 48c | 259.17$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 27c | 244.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.59 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f43…843abacked Over | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -61%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 72c | 175$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 28c | 137.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94b…0639backed Over | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 26c | 124.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 35c | 119.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 116.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 73c | 99.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 25c | 93.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 74c | 86.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 26c | 64.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…5378backed Over | 73c | 56.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 72c | 55.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…dc56backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 52c | 53.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 44c | 53.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 54c | 52.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 27c | 51.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 49c | 50.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 50c | 45.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 56c | 45.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ea31backed Over | 57c | 44.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…77aebacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Under | 34c | 35.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Under | 61c | 35.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 33.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1911…ebf8backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 46c | 29.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 41c | 27.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…591abacked Under | 76c | 26.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Over | 40c | 25.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…c0e2backed Under | 74c | 20.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…225fbacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 1.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 2.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Samsunspor: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Samsunspor won
- Spread: Samsunspor (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.