Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5048315d539201cc818af08e3730df3e737534d9b40bb978113ba890133c762e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed Yes | 2c | 1,209$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 773.64$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.17 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes | 5c | 403.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 381.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 369.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 348.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 254.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 239.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 233.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 29c | 200.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 29c | 198.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 194.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 23c | 190.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 8c | 177.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 11c | 153.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 143.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 12c | 138.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 134.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 23c | 121.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 117.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 9c | 108.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 104.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 100.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 99.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 34c | 99.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 98.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 13c | 94.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 83.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 71.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 78c | 68.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 72c | 65.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 61.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 53.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 32c | 49.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 73c | 48.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 48.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…d007backed Yes | 29c | 46.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 69c | 43.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…e2acbacked Yes | 31c | 38.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 37.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 41c | 36.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 72c | 33.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 79c | 29.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7648backed No | 74c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 63c | 24.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 80c | 22.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 70c | 22.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 66c | 15.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 79c | 15.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 74c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 68c | 14.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.