Movies · resolved market
Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x504e795d361636416cbb9f47f16b8b9b8d2ad5198ccd8d7dff14bb9482eb5563
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 4c | 12,187$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.6 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 17c | 4,260$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 20c | 3,573$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.23 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc838…1288backed Yes | 17c | 2,116$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 18c | 1,666$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 15c | 1,029$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 599.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 15c | 248.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 18c | 216.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…9458backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 18c | 196.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…848ebacked Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…eacfbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 17c | 108.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc6…411fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 88.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…7974backed Yes | 71c | 70.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 80c | 55.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…0669backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…e72dbacked Yes | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?this page
- Will 'A Real Pain' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will 'Challengers' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?Yes won
- Will 'The Substance' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.