Movies · resolved market
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c1b0c73c01807a402493a58425bd76a2f1f0e1e7c622ea10266a2fb41c396e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 21c | 2,075$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 24c | 1,855$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.86 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…1d54backed Yes | 20c | 1,251$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 73c | 1,001$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.73 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 80c | 520$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 20c | 375.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Yes | 21c | 340$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 18c | 320$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.2 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 21c | 300$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.28 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 21c | 292.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.06 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 284.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.35 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes | 20c | 284$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 21c | 211.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.34 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 22c | 210.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.57 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 77c | 160$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b05…4e6bbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…cf6abacked Yes | 21c | 104$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 33cpaid | +251.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…d426backed No | 79c | 104$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…e10fbacked Yes | 21c | 103$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…fef0backed No | 79c | 103$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…6c04backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…0c49backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb159…eac1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 17c | 95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 33c | 90.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cf…7864backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…819fbacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…9cdabacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6d…825dbacked Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…e9cabacked No | 80c | 76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4555…2cf4backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…0da3backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 21c | 72.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 70.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…71f2backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…da34backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 66.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141d…3af0backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc27c…9cacbacked Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 35c | 64.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed Yes | 21c | 64.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 38cpaid | +152.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…8b59backed No | 80c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x473c…03cfbacked Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 20c | 56.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19a6…b03bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…ed0abacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e76…b95ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…5812backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…29d7backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebb…22f0backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf2…2211backed No | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 45c | 40.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7955…8298backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes | 64c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?this page
- Will 'A Real Pain' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will 'Challengers' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will 'The Substance' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?No won
- Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.