Movies · resolved market
Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8-11m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x506828cb8f8718ea0bd07b2491ffdd1568e49948c6dbba8dfd5d64a764b73361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.74 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 40c | 1,150$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 42c | 1,108$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.58 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 25c | 500$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.27 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 72c | 374.58$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.24 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 368.28$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed Yes | 23c | 333.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 217.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb2…d43bbacked Yes | 17c | 174.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 44c | 165.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 33c | 94.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 64c | 53.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…d74fbacked Yes | 69c | 43.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…1a48backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8-11m?this page
- Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-14m?No won
- Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14-17m?No won
- Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8m?No won
- Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $17m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.