Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50706408c15de51d741d92c5422872ed2b55b8c4dc27897f000c8b2d6e6fa7d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 27c | 379.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 25c | 350.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 253.58$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 26c | 248.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 199.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 175.26$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 170.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 160.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 156.06$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 133.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 132$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 60c | 126.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 114.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 95.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 59c | 93.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 85.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 75c | 80.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…0e7bbacked Yes | 75c | 80.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 79.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 79.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 77.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 75c | 76.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 21c | 69.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked Yes | 27c | 65.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 31c | 62.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…a7dabacked Yes | 71c | 56.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 55.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 21c | 49.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 45.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe4…f53bbacked Yes | 73c | 40.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 32c | 37.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 35.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 33.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 67c | 32.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 75c | 30.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 29.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 51c | 28.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 24.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 22.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 76c | 18.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 73c | 17.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 71c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.