Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Roma beat Athletic Bilbao?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5092ec21a07aeb50496875376374e333e291039cddebdb685b99dd088e47eba0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 44c | 1,984$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.03 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 56c | 1,790$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.11 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,166$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 43c | 999.97$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Yes | 3c | 833$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 55c | 749.92$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.47 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 55c | 709.97$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.48 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 58c | 689.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.66 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 43c | 687.35$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.56 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 43c | 497.39$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.59 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…d9f9backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…7718backed No | 57c | 385.96$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…d3c1backed Yes | 45c | 377.78$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fd…449ebacked No | 57c | 363.16$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 66c | 361.92$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 55c | 270.58$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…42e1backed No | 57c | 270.18$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…e387backed Yes | 45c | 269.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 56c | 218.26$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…ecd6backed No | 57c | 185.95$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8a…6cc9backed Yes | 45c | 130.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…0ababacked Yes | 45c | 127$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…03a0backed No | 58c | 98.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…e314backed Yes | 44c | 95.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…d547backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 45c | 66.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 45c | 59.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 44c | 58.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…f6d2backed Yes | 45c | 57.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 44c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f90…153dbacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…55dbbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…cc6fbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…46d3backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…5472backed No | 57c | 49.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90fd…3443backed Yes | 45c | 44.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…3985backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x525a…ebe8backed No | 56c | 43.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…ad0abacked Yes | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…464dbacked Yes | 44c | 35.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b0…8457backed Yes | 45c | 35.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…1890backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…1affbacked No | 57c | 19.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Roma beat Athletic Bilbao?this page
- Will Athletic Bilbao beat Roma?No won
- Will the match between Roma vs. Athletic Bilbao end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.