Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50b1a185a2a1854875386a0c67ac8e06cfab370f4dbacbd982e20f9cc45a402a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 1c | 2,713$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…94e5backed Yes | 11c | 1,109$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…f9acbacked Yes | 2c | 920.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 3c | 720$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 515.32$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 433.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 395$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…ce33backed Yes | 42c | 237.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 220.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 21c | 178.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 61c | 139.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 130.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 22c | 128.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 34c | 112.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 89.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 77.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 75.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 73.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 69.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 64.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 63.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…9235backed Yes | 51c | 57.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 56.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 56c | 55.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 30c | 51.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 48.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 45.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 43.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 42.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 40.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 35.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 69c | 33.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 32.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 29.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 45c | 29.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 29.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 28.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 26.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 54c | 24.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 54c | 23.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 72c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.