Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6fab98cb1dd93fb2f0304255c8354a1a3ee79437fddcf981f30d3fbb281b17d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x285e…f9acbacked No | 2c | 5,099$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…94e5backed No | 7c | 3,291$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed No | 1c | 1,352$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 76c | 666.78$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.78 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…cd7bbacked No | 48c | 615.72$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 8c | 602.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 30c | 458.41$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.09 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 406.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.64 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 48c | 392.16$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.92 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 53c | 371.26$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.97 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 21c | 352.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…7ee5backed No | 51c | 322.31$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 79c | 306.43$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 229.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.92 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…dd3dbacked No | 68c | 191.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 175.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 14c | 164.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 34c | 160.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 10c | 151.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 151.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 68c | 150.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 148.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 50c | 132.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…9bcfbacked No | 77c | 129.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 74cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 62c | 115.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 23c | 113.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 75c | 109.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e06…61e0backed No | 74c | 107.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 52c | 106.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 64c | 93.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed No | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 80.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 79.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf723…a499backed Yes | 69c | 78.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 42c | 75.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 49c | 75.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 72.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 70c | 70.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 17c | 65.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed No | 65c | 61.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 58.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 57.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 55.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 54.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 44c | 51.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 36c | 51.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 21c | 49.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5989…4b87backed Yes | 61c | 43.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 32c | 34.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 29c | 34.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 71c | 29.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 29.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 64c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 57c | 22.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf128…5584backed No | 64c | 21.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…0559backed Yes | 72c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 78c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.