Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50b3a1493ede8b3c9f794f3a54b40983e0466c3d88377b1debb4ef42c18d4236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Zero Tenacity
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Zero Tenacity | 42c | 10,222$4,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,293.24 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 10,009$5,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,203.71 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Zero Tenacity | 59c | 6,792$4,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,007.57 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 4,193$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,365.25 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 2,671$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.72 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 2,336$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.6 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zero Tenacity | 31c | 1,407$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.37 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Zero Tenacity | 38c | 1,200$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 1,060$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.57 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 874.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.24 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 711.29$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.33 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked Zero Tenacity | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 624.39$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.39 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Zero Tenacity | 37c | 501.72$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.27 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 497.08$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.61 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 417.84$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.3 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…5a03backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 332.47$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 300.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Zero Tenacity | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…2ed2backed Zero Tenacity | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Zero Tenacity | 45c | 257.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Zero Tenacity | 35c | 210$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Zero Tenacity | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 103.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Zero Tenacity | 35c | 100.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Zero Tenacity | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 93.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Zero Tenacity | 41c | 86.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 78.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Zero Tenacity | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Zero Tenacity | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Zero Tenacity | 32c | 42.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf1…c90ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Zero Tenacity | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…19eebacked Zero Tenacity | 32c | 31.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3f…f29fbacked Zero Tenacity | 43c | 31.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…808dbacked Zero Tenacity | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8668…cbc7backed Zero Tenacity | 69c | 14.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 WinnerZero Tenacity won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.