TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Zero Tenacity
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,852

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,299 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac70…2d8dbacked Zero Tenacity42c10,222$4,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,293.249245.7%42 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Nigma Galaxy58c10,009$5,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,203.7155157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Zero Tenacity59c6,792$4,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,007.5715457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Nigma Galaxy44c4,193$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.2520949.3%103 W · 106 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Nigma Galaxy75c2,671$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.726663.6%42 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Nigma Galaxy46c2,336$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.666662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Zero Tenacity31c1,407$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.372,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d9d7backed Zero Tenacity38c1,200$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4609750.5%49 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy69c1,060$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.5759250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Nigma Galaxy57c874.53$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.2447660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Nigma Galaxy64c711.29$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.3319552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d97…f2bebacked Zero Tenacity43c700$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy41c624.39$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.3964123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Zero Tenacity37c501.72$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.271,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c8a…d30fbacked Nigma Galaxy60c497.08$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.612564%16 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Nigma Galaxy59c417.84$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.314661%89 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10f9…5a03backed Nigma Galaxy68c332.47$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.451631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-42.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Nigma Galaxy50c300.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.141655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Zero Tenacity36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1089345.2%42 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Nigma Galaxy64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10845061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb475…2ed2backed Zero Tenacity27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811050%5 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+68.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Nigma Galaxy41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17731245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Zero Tenacity45c257.33$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7421346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Zero Tenacity35c210$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.561548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Zero Tenacity16c106.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1733645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7b…0cc9backed Nigma Galaxy64c103.13$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.137944.3%35 W · 44 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Zero Tenacity35c100.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3536051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Zero Tenacity16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Nigma Galaxy63c93.13$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5830534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Zero Tenacity41c86.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5414453.5%77 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…0dd9backed Nigma Galaxy41c78.05$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.051127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed Zero Tenacity33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033743.6%147 W · 190 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked Zero Tenacity50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Nigma Galaxy70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1526661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Zero Tenacity32c42.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.731,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Nigma Galaxy57c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.266848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf1…c90ebacked Nigma Galaxy58c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85d…6832backed Zero Tenacity37c34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512438.7%48 W · 76 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05a…19eebacked Zero Tenacity32c31.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.184067.5%27 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3f…f29fbacked Zero Tenacity43c31.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd887…808dbacked Zero Tenacity46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.84875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8668…cbc7backed Zero Tenacity69c14.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.