NFL · resolved market
Will the Texans beat the Cowboys by 8 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50b8e0ba1f4bcfc1d17a0a12671376882f08efb8b4154658dc62f1e9a3eaf88c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Texans, Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Cowboys | 51c | 1,400$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Cowboys | 50c | 1,358$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.75 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Texans | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Cowboys | 52c | 1,171$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.92 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Cowboys | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94dc…c779backed Texans | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Texans | 49c | 808.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.33 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Texans | 50c | 802$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Texans | 48c | 678$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.14 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cowboys | 50c | 500$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed Texans | 48c | 416$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.32 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Texans | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.94 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Texans | 47c | 210$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Cowboys | 47c | 209.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…8304backed Texans | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Texans | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Texans | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cowboys | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Texans | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 195 | 64.6%126 W · 69 L | +12.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Texans | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…d7eabacked Cowboys | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Texans beat the Cowboys by 8 or more points?this page
- Will the Texans and Cowboys combine for 41 or more points?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.