MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50cc37e0a2d95a6e50e6766faa9c5b5a77eda958d8e8d5ac0d2a0ecd905b5194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Twins, Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Twins | 50c | 5,628$2,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.91 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Brewers | 50c | 3,210$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9680…23bdbacked Brewers | 49c | 2,200$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Brewers | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Brewers | 43c | 1,779$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.03 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Twins | 51c | 1,717$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.71 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Brewers | 49c | 1,433$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.17 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207f…91b7backed Twins | 51c | 1,122$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…836bbacked Twins | 51c | 1,078$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.22 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 48cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…1f16backed Twins | 52c | 1,010$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.8 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Twins | 50c | 985.48$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.74 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Brewers | 11c | 909.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Brewers | 49c | 885.65$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.53 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Twins | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Brewers | 31c | 752.56$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 50c | 711.41$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.71 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Brewers | 47c | 434.81$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Brewers | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Brewers | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Twins | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc84…3e67backed Twins | 53c | 254.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Brewers | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Twins | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Brewers | 22c | 185.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Brewers | 11c | 134.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…d6a9backed Twins | 52c | 121$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Brewers | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Brewers | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Twins | 52c | 113$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Brewers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Twins | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Brewers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…8affbacked Twins | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Brewers | 29c | 86.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Twins | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Twins | 50c | 65.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Twins | 53c | 51.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Twins | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Brewers | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Brewers | 48c | 49.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Twins | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Twins | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b8…a992backed Brewers | 51c | 46.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…f8b8backed Twins | 51c | 46.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Twins | 53c | 42.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…96e4backed Twins | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265d…5329backed Twins | 80c | 35.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Twins | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Twins | 66c | 29.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Twins | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.