Lol · resolved market
LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50d658e6008f572378a60993576c1014c4b0e3910ac42153fe26d0429725258c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuestof FlyQuest, Disguised
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6842…20d0backed Disguised | 18c | 9,632$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691 | 1,020 | 46.9%478 W · 542 L | +19.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed FlyQuest | 70c | 8,000$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.13 | 262 | 46.6%122 W · 140 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Disguised | 30c | 7,989$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,396.63 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed FlyQuest | 77c | 3,858$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.82 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Disguised | 30c | 3,080$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.24 | 416 | 44.2%184 W · 232 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…3d4cbacked Disguised | 2c | 1,667$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 304 | 21.4%65 W · 239 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6604…87f0backed FlyQuest | 79c | 1,495$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…1305backed FlyQuest | 76c | 1,292$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.97 | 1,473 | 61.4%904 W · 569 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Disguised | 19c | 549.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 850 | 46%391 W · 459 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed FlyQuest | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Disguised | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 486 | 52.1%253 W · 233 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…6832backed Disguised | 22c | 459.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 508 | 45.3%230 W · 278 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Disguised | 23c | 448.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 1,258 | 38.6%485 W · 773 L | -61.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…f5ecbacked Disguised | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Disguised | 18c | 387$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 1,158 | 42.6%493 W · 665 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Disguised | 25c | 298.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…c638backed FlyQuest | 72c | 290.13$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…17ccbacked Disguised | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 601 | 24.1%145 W · 456 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed FlyQuest | 70c | 230$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 867 | 58.1%504 W · 363 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d05…6f11backed Disguised | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Disguised | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 299 | 23.7%71 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Disguised | 15c | 161.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 506 | 43.1%218 W · 288 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed FlyQuest | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed Disguised | 24c | 126.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 289 | 24.6%71 W · 218 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed FlyQuest | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 405 | 64.2%260 W · 145 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de1…916dbacked FlyQuest | 80c | 68.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Disguised | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Disguised | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed FlyQuest | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Disguised | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked FlyQuest | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed FlyQuest | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7624…5d7bbacked FlyQuest | 71c | 34.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed FlyQuest | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed FlyQuest | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…f983backed FlyQuest | 72c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked FlyQuest | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed FlyQuest | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)Disguised won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group StageFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised - Game 2 WinnerDisguised won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.