South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50e7a0e8524ba3a4b4e95db7f93dd9c0b53bbff05421a0e13dec9c3e7afdcb36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Querétaro FCof Pumas de la UNAM, Querétaro FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Querétaro FC | 78c | 2,813$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.55 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Pumas de la UNAM | 27c | 1,981$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.86 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Pumas de la UNAM | 14c | 1,396$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Querétaro FC | 72c | 501.04$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Pumas de la UNAM | 28c | 496.04$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.89 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Pumas de la UNAM | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Querétaro FC | 71c | 95.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 256 | 35.9%92 W · 164 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Querétaro FC | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Querétaro FC | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Querétaro FC | 74c | 40.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Querétaro FC | 74c | 38.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pumas de la UNAM | 26c | 38.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Querétaro FC | 73c | 38.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Querétaro FC | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Querétaro FC | 76c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Querétaro FC | 73c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5)this page
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: Pumas de la UNAM O/U 1.5Under won
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC: Querétaro FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-2.5)Querétaro FC won
- Spread: Querétaro FC (-1.5)Pumas de la UNAM won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.