MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51232d2f9c2bf6bc4e05891ee2d00ffd9b55167a3efdb2ec14d52de374c5ace1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 4,331$2,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 3,361$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 613.93$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 595.26$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 486.06$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 455.81$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.82 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 285.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.14 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 257.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.92 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 200.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.05 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 145.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 110.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 81.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 72.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 49.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 48.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked San Diego Padres | 26c | 42.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 30.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 26.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 25.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 19.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…839bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 18.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.