MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe34ddffc2f47c47b6730c27b694622e5a8ff2f399d1de3b68fe3a092aeb5509a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 52c | 62,488$32,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,267.17 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 49c | 20,400$9,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,996 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 57c | 15,000$8,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,549.98 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 14,860$7,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,124.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 8,631$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,911.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 51c | 5,785$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,834.64 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ff…473dbacked Under | 43c | 5,133$2,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.99 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 3,002$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.9 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,706$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 53c | 1,342$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.93 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 45c | 700$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 48c | 625.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.47 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 50c | 499.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.55 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 50c | 438.21$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.32 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 43c | 416$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.12 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 49c | 307$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 284.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 48c | 245.13$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 63c | 181$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 45c | 175.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 49c | 165.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 36c | 82.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…1014backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 53.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 46c | 51.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…28f3backed Over | 49c | 50.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 46.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 62c | 39.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 64c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b8…2350backed Over | 55c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 26.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Over | 49c | 24.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…f631backed Under | 52c | 20.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 63c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.