Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x513fc22a5aa74a213276ae81070abfbc24034536d7a4093603c390d0df07d6a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 32c | 694.61$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.76 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 42c | 357.38$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.75 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked No | 56c | 212$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 170$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…11b5backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 69c | 144.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 129.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 90.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 82.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 31c | 72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 58c | 50.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…5d81backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 63c | 37.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 21.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed No | 68c | 20.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…4328backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 18.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 19?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 19?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 19?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.