Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: NRG vs Fnatic (BO5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5145592e6a2cedf7e32835536312585236bd6908db072f9cc323d3ee94ae5880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRGof NRG, Fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Fnatic | 49c | 9,413$4,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,592.25 | 463 | 26.6%123 W · 340 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked NRG | 51c | 6,820$3,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,341.8 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed NRG | 55c | 6,040$3,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,748 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed NRG | 48c | 3,272$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Fnatic | 27c | 2,021$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Fnatic | 51c | 1,972$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Fnatic | 54c | 1,885$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…955fbacked Fnatic | 23c | 1,439$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 29cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed NRG | 69c | 1,308$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked NRG | 49c | 1,300$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Fnatic | 19c | 1,039$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Fnatic | 20c | 995.79$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…a28dbacked Fnatic | 45c | 958.69$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked NRG | 78c | 900$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Fnatic | 57c | 787$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked NRG | 44c | 699.99$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked NRG | 49c | 599.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.99 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Fnatic | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked Fnatic | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Fnatic | 7c | 254.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Fnatic | 24c | 228.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked Fnatic | 34c | 213.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked Fnatic | 51c | 199.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fnatic | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked NRG | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Fnatic | 52c | 123.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed Fnatic | 29c | 107.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…4485backed Fnatic | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Fnatic | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…4c9bbacked Fnatic | 31c | 82.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Fnatic | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…29edbacked NRG | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…2047backed Fnatic | 53c | 45.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Fnatic | 30c | 44.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Fnatic | 60c | 40.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 229 | 55%126 W · 103 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…62a7backed Fnatic | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a23…2a0fbacked Fnatic | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: NRG vs Fnatic (BO5)this page
- Valorant: NRG vs Fnatic - Map 1 WinnerNRG won
- Valorant: NRG vs Fnatic - Map 3 WinnerFnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.