Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Fancy United vs Motiv Esports - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5172c9b4ba7262f22a6ed22b59e72f260a16d414bf7d4fa1e9fa65c107e2c563
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Motiv Esportsof Fancy United, Motiv Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,471 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Fancy United | 51c | 2,512$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Motiv Esports | 46c | 1,266$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.53 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Fancy United | 53c | 804.49$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.19 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Fancy United | 55c | 765.2$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.16 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Fancy United | 39c | 699.99$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d63…8b8cbacked Motiv Esports | 49c | 638.78$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Motiv Esports | 48c | 635.08$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.08 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Motiv Esports | 49c | 516$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…c69bbacked Fancy United | 57c | 507.45$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f19…8ce4backed Fancy United | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb36…113fbacked Motiv Esports | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c0…c3b9backed Motiv Esports | 55c | 450$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…05a4backed Fancy United | 44c | 450$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6941backed Motiv Esports | 54c | 364.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 260 | 51.9%135 W · 125 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fancy United | 38c | 287.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Motiv Esports | 48c | 220.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Motiv Esports | 70c | 173.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…f4e3backed Motiv Esports | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Motiv Esports | 43c | 165.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…5f48backed Motiv Esports | 49c | 150.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…3c94backed Motiv Esports | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Fancy United | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Fancy United | 51c | 139.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…d461backed Motiv Esports | 47c | 138.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Fancy United | 51c | 137.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Motiv Esports | 48c | 134.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed Motiv Esports | 66c | 131.86$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Motiv Esports | 49c | 118.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…5e80backed Motiv Esports | 48c | 106$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…76d7backed Motiv Esports | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Motiv Esports | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…4176backed Motiv Esports | 40c | 99.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Motiv Esports | 60c | 59.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 101 | 59.4%60 W · 41 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Motiv Esports | 57c | 52.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…3c1cbacked Fancy United | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Motiv Esports | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Motiv Esports | 38c | 28.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed Fancy United | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Motiv Esports | 60c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 207 | 55.6%115 W · 92 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Fancy United | 55c | 21.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 109 | 59.6%65 W · 44 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Fancy United vs Motiv Esports - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Fancy United vs Motiv Esports (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: PlayoffsMotiv Esports won
- Valorant: Fancy United vs Motiv Esports - Map 2 WinnerMotiv Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.