Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x518b91b54b5ac86b1c8dc299d0113e5d1264238640700339c771cdb1a48f08cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 31c | 2,461$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.91 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 7c | 1,390$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 31c | 1,200$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 1,042$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 32c | 955.53$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.52 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 33c | 799.96$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.99 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 31c | 354.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 327.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 68c | 309.48$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 4c | 260.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 6c | 199.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 32c | 156.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 23c | 156.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f84…6c38backed Over | 32c | 96.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 32c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 68c | 40.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…7555backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Under | 70c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8750…0841backed Under | 72c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.