Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519a6770aa141b124a33c9834bbb9bb6dbafe38cae1d70a20111a0da9038cd30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 26c | 360.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.26 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 320.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 169.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 155.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 41c | 129.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 60c | 123.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 29c | 104.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa01d…3c10backed Yes | 24c | 102.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 93.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 91.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 28c | 81.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 80.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 78.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 74.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 70c | 71.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 62.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 60.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 53.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 53.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 52.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 50.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 45.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 45.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 76c | 39.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 39.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 71c | 34.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 33.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…a024backed No | 70c | 24.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 15.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.