Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
March Madness: Purdue vs. NC State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519b58bcb53a436bffb140722986ef7662f3fea86fcff42487e37a0b6958f326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Purdueof Purdue, NC State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed NC State | 21c | 3,600$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Purdue | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Purdue | 79c | 2,365$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ad…4c0cbacked Purdue | 80c | 2,300$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed NC State | 20c | 1,805$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.07 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Purdue | 79c | 1,765$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Purdue | 80c | 1,050$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…724cbacked NC State | 21c | 1,048$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked NC State | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed NC State | 21c | 801$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Purdue | 79c | 487.11$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.29 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Purdue | 80c | 408.75$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed NC State | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Purdue | 80c | 306.15$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…19fcbacked Purdue | 80c | 262.5$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked NC State | 21c | 261.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…d48ebacked Purdue | 80c | 237.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Purdue | 80c | 194.51$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed NC State | 20c | 188.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed NC State | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…a540backed NC State | 21c | 68.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Purdue | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 73cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.