Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51a00cdb38d26efb72b1f6009f6c2f59cc01fde7ddb12e970e15baeb7cddd5ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Casa Pia ACof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Casa Pia AC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Casa Pia AC | 58c | 2,167$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.92 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 39c | 1,502$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Casa Pia AC | 62c | 1,261$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 1,031$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Casa Pia AC | 56c | 877.47$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.3 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 60c | 806.96$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 38c | 448.01$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Casa Pia AC | 39c | 447.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.27 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 51c | 209.49$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 178.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Casa Pia AC | 47c | 165.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 61c | 160.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 39c | 124.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 117.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Casa Pia AC | 62c | 107.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 57c | 94.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 89.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Casa Pia AC | 40c | 84.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 36c | 80.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 80.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 62.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…80d4backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 39c | 61.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 60.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Casa Pia AC | 55c | 59.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Casa Pia AC | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…d240backed Casa Pia AC | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Casa Pia AC | 42c | 49.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…6816backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 60c | 46.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…7ef7backed Casa Pia AC | 48c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 49c | 33.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…745fbacked Casa Pia AC | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3392…0662backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)this page
- Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Under won
- Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
- Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Casa Pia AC (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Casa Pia AC (-2.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Casa Pia AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.