Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51a2003180dcf2c74f3c8726172b37e567be29c666b4c047bf491e37bee5302e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 13c | 1,387$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 36c | 1,258$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.83 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 597.23$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 28c | 578.06$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.51 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 16c | 576.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 77c | 539.99$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 484.78$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 444.3$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 405.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 45c | 377.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.66 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 28c | 371.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.8 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 369.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed Yes | 74c | 351.62$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 67c | 327.5$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 73c | 312.07$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 299.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 263.43$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 262.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.76 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 247.45$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 21c | 244.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.29 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 62c | 238.36$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.82 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 43c | 224.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 213.75$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 25c | 213.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.25 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 75c | 199.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 60c | 196.3$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 184.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 22c | 179.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.44 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 178.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…eb9fbacked No | 46c | 165.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 159.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 19c | 155.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.22 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 143.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 20c | 143.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 43c | 141.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 67c | 128.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 23c | 126.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 119.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed Yes | 22c | 112.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…fadbbacked No | 73c | 112.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 23c | 111.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 24c | 105.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 72c | 103.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 36c | 102.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 37c | 101.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 101.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 56c | 99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 22c | 98.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 12c | 98.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 66c | 95.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 88.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 88.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 31c | 87.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 87.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 27c | 81.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 31c | 81.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 66c | 80.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 38c | 79.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed Yes | 24c | 78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 24c | 77.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 21c | 77.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 24c | 70.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed No | 27c | 70.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 41c | 68.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…4e48backed Yes | 29c | 66.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 65.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 22c | 64.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 32c | 62.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 57c | 58.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 74c | 57.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 63c | 57.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…0694backed Yes | 40c | 56.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 74c | 55.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…e353backed No | 78c | 54.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 32c | 53.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 53.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 53.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 52.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 36c | 52.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…9431backed No | 50c | 50.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 57c | 50.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 34c | 50.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 77c | 49.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7457…4fc4backed Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 23c | 48.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 48.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 46.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 28c | 45.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 80c | 45.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 41c | 45.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…fe90backed No | 70c | 43.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 78c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 35c | 42.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…7edfbacked No | 78c | 42.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.