Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9407db61c4d1bd2a7373a9934d84cd0d771cd6be3bcd3f412cd51f07f95db98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 1,354$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 36c | 559.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.26 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 492.04$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.88 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 449.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 65c | 429.67$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.65 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 404.56$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 385.71$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 333.57$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 320.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 313.47$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 304$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 19c | 288.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 29c | 281.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 54c | 239.93$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 26c | 229.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 48c | 196.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 49c | 187.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 64c | 180.8$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 55c | 175.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 170.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…f777backed No | 75c | 164.95$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 34c | 150.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 145.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 55c | 144.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 137.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 32c | 136.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…b708backed Yes | 72c | 135.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 28c | 130.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed Yes | 38c | 123.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 13c | 120.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 44c | 106.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 104.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 32c | 101.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 55c | 101.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 43c | 97.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 49c | 97.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 66c | 85.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 55c | 84.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 57c | 83.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 74c | 81.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 60c | 78.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 33c | 76.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 61c | 75.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 50c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 67c | 70.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 27c | 70.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 42c | 67.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 67.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 56c | 67.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 44c | 66.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 65.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 50c | 65.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 53c | 63.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 58c | 62.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 52c | 62.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 61c | 61.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 61.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 47c | 60.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4752…0a6fbacked No | 46c | 59.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 58.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 58.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 58.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…cb9fbacked No | 48c | 57.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 31c | 55.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…dd03backed Yes | 36c | 54.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 44c | 53.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed Yes | 54c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 54c | 52.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 35c | 52.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…3f0dbacked No | 70c | 51.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 49.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 59c | 49.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 28c | 47.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 51c | 46.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7457…4fc4backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 44c | 43.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 55c | 43.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked Yes | 33c | 41.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 58c | 39.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 48c | 39.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 29c | 39.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 47c | 38.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 62c | 38.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe2…c8f2backed Yes | 50c | 38.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 59c | 37.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 51c | 37.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.