Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51a87063be6aa521f754b598ea16292263968c77f19a796b02e9c27fbfda39be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e46…86b3backed Yes | 70c | 587.65$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 72c | 510.49$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.69 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 30c | 413.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 71c | 291.54$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked No | 4c | 271.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 62c | 263.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 26c | 231.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 65c | 229.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 72c | 220.1$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 55c | 211.1$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 79c | 205.78$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 44c | 205.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 170.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 47c | 168.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 129.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 38c | 120.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 46c | 111.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 106.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 102.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 98.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 96.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes | 52c | 95.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed Yes | 61c | 90.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 22c | 79.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…6e84backed Yes | 47c | 77.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 56c | 76.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 73.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 70c | 71.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 80c | 67.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…bd45backed No | 37c | 67.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 69c | 63.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 64c | 62.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 40c | 59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 51c | 56.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 55c | 56.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 33c | 55.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 52.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 58c | 51.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 54c | 49.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 30c | 49.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 69c | 49.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 39c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 46.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 56c | 44.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 34c | 43.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…b55cbacked No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 51c | 42.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 41.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 40c | 39.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 59c | 38.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 62c | 38.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 36.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 34c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 60c | 33.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 46c | 32.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 61c | 30.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 72c | 29.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 38c | 29.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…27fabacked No | 41c | 27.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 60c | 26.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 38c | 26.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…1a95backed No | 60c | 25.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 61c | 22.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…da6ebacked Yes | 65c | 21.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed Yes | 76c | 21.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 77c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…4d24backed Yes | 62c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4801…4a60backed Yes | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…992dbacked Yes | 71c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.