Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51ae4fb0493f8b099255f15728ad08b07914342ea3693ffe3825c7ac1dd5bd19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 3c | 598.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 408.42$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 77c | 405.08$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8c…0387backed Yes | 40c | 340.34$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 20c | 311.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 78c | 290.74$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 33c | 260.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 47c | 219$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 197.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 161.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 159.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 35c | 145.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 79c | 145.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 142.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 45c | 141.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 39c | 133.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 57c | 124.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 50c | 120.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 13c | 112.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 102.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 11c | 98.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…09bdbacked Yes | 33c | 75.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…153cbacked Yes | 64c | 67.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 39c | 66.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 46c | 64.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 48c | 50.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 62c | 48.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…bca0backed Yes | 42c | 43.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 44c | 43.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 37c | 42.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 25c | 42.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 33c | 39.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b1…4cd8backed No | 69c | 36.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 53c | 31.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 49c | 31.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…a858backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e95…0df8backed Yes | 35c | 28.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 46c | 28.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 49c | 26.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 78c | 26.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 45c | 25.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de7…0a86backed Yes | 47c | 21.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 63c | 19.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 63c | 17.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 69c | 17.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.