Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d6cb31495cbb70435a794fe60ebada3e0eaeb1686f1a7a00a1a6ad01b1df821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,682$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 11c | 995.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 25c | 603.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 12c | 405.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 292.49$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8c…0387backed Yes | 56c | 212.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 7c | 194.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 189.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked Yes | 11c | 155.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 146.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 131.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 122.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 28c | 118$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 110.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 15c | 105.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 19c | 104.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 102.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 22c | 101.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 27c | 93.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 82.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 21c | 79.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 15c | 76.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 70c | 72.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe70…216cbacked Yes | 32c | 50.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 67c | 48.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…4d69backed No | 77c | 42.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 47c | 38.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…6966backed Yes | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…2033backed Yes | 67c | 37.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked Yes | 37c | 27.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 24.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…153cbacked Yes | 68c | 17.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 17.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 75c | 16.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…5fd3backed No | 73c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 13.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.