MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51df387a3e841641d2f3e2ac517009f4c068bccc28c2b9398ebd37f57bd3be6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 60c | 105,308$63,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,279.14 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 75,459$29,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,990.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 21,967$8,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,379.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 13,016$5,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,208.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 65c | 9,913$6,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,425.85 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 3,216$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 41c | 1,893$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.13 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 1c | 1,047$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.39 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 59c | 855.36$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.7 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 711$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.51 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…70e3backed Over | 5c | 466$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 423.42$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 39c | 297.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 43c | 295.02$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 41c | 225.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 59c | 206.37$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 39c | 120.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 118$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 112$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 41c | 85.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 78c | 85.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 74c | 74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Over | 49c | 69.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Over | 42c | 53.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 61c | 51.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 62c | 34.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 60c | 34.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 42c | 33.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 39c | 31.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 29.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 61c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Over | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 16.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.