MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7d3a6fdd54646cef484865e3a93a7380164554a9b2418190629b3468cfe29be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 1,882$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.65 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 28c | 1,322$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 1,147$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 997.97$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.84 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 456.78$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.36 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 382.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 326$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.56 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 18c | 257.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 255.43$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 242.93$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 216.52$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 154$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 28c | 132$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 117.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 116.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 25c | 115.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 102$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 102$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 90.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 82.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 79.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 77.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 75.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 66.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 33c | 65.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1930…691cbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 42.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 40.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 35.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 30.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 23.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 22.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.