South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f3836817cfcc80db512e67fd6969169b8f7a0d930fdba6fbbedd940f65d909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- EC Bahiaof EC Bahia, Red Bull Bragantino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,637 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed EC Bahia | 33c | 5,960$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,993.2 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Red Bull Bragantino | 67c | 5,681$3,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,806.23 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed EC Bahia | 75c | 1,042$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.81 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Red Bull Bragantino | 21c | 366.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 59c | 332.71$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.78 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 73c | 296.94$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked EC Bahia | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed EC Bahia | 61c | 138.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Red Bull Bragantino | 64c | 116.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…cf21backed EC Bahia | 27c | 102.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…7ca8backed EC Bahia | 27c | 98.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…a3b9backed EC Bahia | 27c | 96.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed EC Bahia | 33c | 75.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Red Bull Bragantino | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed EC Bahia | 60c | 51.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked EC Bahia | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Red Bull Bragantino | 67c | 29.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)this page
- EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)EC Bahia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.