South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc0a10e444f6625fe90d009d9ba99723d4e78cc7cb63c8e5a8b4652bc58e00bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 32c | 1,047$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.72 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 778.19$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.95 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 588.42$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.06 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 23c | 517$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 68c | 349.03$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 34c | 293.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 28c | 153.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 37c | 115.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Over | 28c | 111$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 45c | 102.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 37c | 99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 67c | 89.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 76c | 65.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 48c | 53.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 37c | 30.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 64c | 30.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…52d4backed Under | 79c | 23.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)EC Bahia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.