Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51fa1e998f69ca00905fb32c4c080eea2ed400ae6767918d44f09adc13a45b3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 5,837$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.23 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 5,461$4,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.69 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 30c | 1,750$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 1,504$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.45 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 70c | 1,350$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 1,126$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.5 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 71c | 933.38$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.73 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 70c | 800$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 441.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 29c | 411.22$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 320.65$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 29c | 261.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 71c | 199.98$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 29c | 102.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…01cbbacked Yes | 29c | 102$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…f7f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yes | 29c | 96.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 12c | 84.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 72c | 49.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 72c | 28.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 77c | 27.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 70c | 24.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed No | 72c | 24.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 71c | 22.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked No | 76c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-01-25?No won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2026-01-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.