Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x524e0c15ac0398682e5b9a97b9d1909c6a2c08cc2326fda8b986f59003d936a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 1c | 4,631$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…cc0abacked No | 3c | 2,295$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 4c | 878.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 7c | 799.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 633.36$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…04edbacked No | 2c | 568.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 32c | 529.48$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 23c | 444.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 372.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 366.87$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.13 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 330.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 5c | 296.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 293.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 12c | 258.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 76c | 239.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.02 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 236.34$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 46c | 200.01$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 199.89$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 75c | 191.32$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.49 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked Yes | 38c | 159.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 148.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 10c | 121.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 18c | 114.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 73c | 113.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 48c | 112.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked No | 35c | 110.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 16c | 97.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 48c | 89.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 86.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 61c | 81.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 74.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 31c | 68.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 66.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 19c | 66.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 56.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cc…613abacked No | 77c | 50.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 49.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 59c | 45.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 43.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 80c | 37.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 37.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 65c | 36.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…0f46backed Yes | 61c | 36.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 56c | 34.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…cbb0backed Yes | 70c | 34.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 55c | 32.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed Yes | 33c | 32.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 46c | 32.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed No | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 66c | 24.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 20.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 77c | 15.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…dcb5backed No | 76c | 14.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1f…5578backed Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.