Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0449eb91be67bffdcd9021eafbd794dd7a0bb98d05977fe1cd6d382e2db6d4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 2c | 1,274$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 8c | 818.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 21c | 714.48$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.16 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 11c | 399.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 13c | 325.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 8c | 308$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 26c | 296.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 24c | 247.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…1cbebacked Yes | 25c | 247.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 24c | 227.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 222.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 13c | 210$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 74c | 204.33$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 174$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 11c | 173.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 10c | 142.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 136.01$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 129.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 17c | 99.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed Yes | 31c | 75.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…0897backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 46.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 44.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 35.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 74c | 30.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.