Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x526248a868573f61ee7d3b8daf385ac9a7edc1a6e7093b2ff3c1eae55a1df0e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 32c | 312.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 273.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 254.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 68c | 240.62$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 200.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 199.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 18c | 185.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 32c | 160.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 33c | 159.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 71c | 157.26$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 32c | 151.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…b5b2backed Yes | 32c | 151.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e225backed Yes | 32c | 151.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…dc81backed Yes | 32c | 151.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…8bf2backed Yes | 32c | 151.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…21a8backed No | 68c | 143.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 35c | 132.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 35c | 130.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 126.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 17c | 125.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 116.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 116$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 12c | 112.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 67c | 108.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 101.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 93.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 34c | 86.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 83.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 68c | 83.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 34c | 79.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 78.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…fb87backed No | 67c | 77.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 74.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 39c | 74.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 36c | 69.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 41c | 68.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 34c | 64.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 66c | 63.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 63.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 25c | 62.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 60.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 59.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 68c | 57.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 68c | 54.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 50.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 69c | 48.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 66c | 47.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 33c | 45.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 38c | 42.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 40.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 38.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 33c | 36.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 32c | 35.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 35.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 32c | 34.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 37c | 34.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 67c | 33.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ccbbacked Yes | 35c | 33.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 68c | 31.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 67c | 30.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 34c | 30.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…e23cbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked No | 67c | 29.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 39c | 29.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 66c | 29.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 62c | 28.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 24.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 20.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 65c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.