Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d9fae252e30c4715453245ff18aae6d1ce43aa104838bc38e2337d3f37b676e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 232.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 209$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 157.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 157.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 54c | 150.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 50c | 147.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 32c | 145.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 139.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 137.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 133.89$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 130.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 46c | 122.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 44c | 120.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 33c | 117.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 114.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 45c | 113.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 107.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 45c | 105.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 105.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 101.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 53c | 101.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 100.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 71.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 59c | 69.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 47c | 68.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 58.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 51c | 56.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 25c | 54.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 29c | 53.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…6aadbacked Yes | 43c | 52.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 39c | 52.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 78c | 51.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 23c | 50.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 37c | 49.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 46c | 49.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 53c | 47.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…cb4ebacked Yes | 25c | 46.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 46.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 35c | 45.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 43c | 45.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 25c | 43.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 42.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 46c | 41.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 37.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 30c | 34.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 32.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 48c | 30.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 46c | 30.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…ea98backed Yes | 48c | 29.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 27.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes | 50c | 26.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 58c | 24.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 52c | 19.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 54c | 19.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 18.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.