Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44dabdd1929126014b3ca0c24b42ffb8450c8715cdb6417346f2d5957d5fdbf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 19c | 475.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.76 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 13c | 314.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.11 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 6c | 272.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 4c | 256.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 246.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.02 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 227.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…0d41backed Yes | 14c | 188.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 181.83$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…e23cbacked Yes | 23c | 167.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 162.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.48 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 77c | 157.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 68c | 153.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 36c | 142.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 21c | 141.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 129.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 16c | 129.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.39 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 126.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 57c | 112.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 18c | 101.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 22c | 93.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 92.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…758ebacked Yes | 13c | 92.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…23e8backed Yes | 14c | 76.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 15c | 67.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 66.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 60.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 58.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 77c | 58.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 21c | 58.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 36c | 54.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 39c | 52.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 26c | 41.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 38c | 39.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 36.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 34.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 42c | 30.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 52c | 27.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…1ee8backed Yes | 45c | 23.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes | 51c | 22.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 69c | 16.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.