Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5270e97c9fdbc0ee23a57ac663e65ddd692748e7ded574281c30d99df7ff2460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,010$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.67 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 2c | 979.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 612.47$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 58c | 504.95$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.69 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…8fb5backed Yes | 22c | 393.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 17c | 306.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 46c | 271.15$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.48 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 7c | 268.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 10c | 240.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 42c | 240.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 36c | 238.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 31c | 234.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 20c | 211.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 189.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 187.23$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 166.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 24c | 153.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 147.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 147.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 12c | 135.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 76c | 134.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 129.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 29c | 127.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 126.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 124.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 123.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 106.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 30c | 101.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 98.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 38c | 97.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 38c | 92.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 91.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 22c | 89.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 88.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 58c | 86.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 62c | 86.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 85.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 82.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 76.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 33c | 73.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 26c | 72.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 71.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 35c | 67.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 21c | 65.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 57.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 36c | 56.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 73c | 55.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 53.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 38c | 53.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa2…6d7dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 47c | 48.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 29c | 47.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 38c | 44.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 42.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…05c7backed No | 78c | 40.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 38.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…7a9ebacked No | 68c | 38.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…899dbacked No | 66c | 38.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 34.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 57c | 33.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 63c | 33.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…6eb0backed Yes | 35c | 30.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed No | 65c | 28.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 39c | 28.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3794…715cbacked Yes | 44c | 27.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 60c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…5386backed No | 64c | 22.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 67c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 21.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…5f98backed No | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 68c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331f…d739backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 63c | 18.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c3…b5e5backed No | 68c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 74c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.