TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes60c1,002$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.588151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c647.38$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.0312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No15c371.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1365625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x953f…7518backed No65c299.99$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.993745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.52,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes62c244.35$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7333058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes44c181.61$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.84341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c177.53$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.719,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked No48c177.09$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6830919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x990e…cecfbacked Yes68c148.27$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.722568%17 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c146.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No41c144.01$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1757614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x948f…1215backed Yes38c143.94$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.411457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e37…5396backed Yes33c140.51$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.851546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes70c139.26$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.37146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes42c128.19$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.648643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc907…020fbacked Yes37c127.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.294452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes33c126.75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.311,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No49c124.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.461,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes38c122.14$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.229344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes54c121.54$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8912033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c109.12$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.134,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c98.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.551,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes25c98.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.861,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes45c91.81$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.382,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No22c82.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.334617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c77.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes62c74.21$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4633243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc50…2af3backed Yes65c61.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.882157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82ce…e92abacked No63c60.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.112467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes27c59.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4412317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes69c58.73$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.171,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No41c53.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7366141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b64…88dbbacked Yes68c52.92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes41c52.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.041,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked Yes42c51.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8744147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x402a…bf33backed No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.95046%23 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1925037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3363538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes35c49.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.139747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes38c47.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.325239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c24…81e9backed Yes51c46.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.091770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6946…6eb0backed Yes45c46.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.29837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes29c45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf648…05c7backed No67c44.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-69%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes41c44.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2217138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3023…465cbacked Yes37c43.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.534042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bae…61b8backed Yes70c41.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.474647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes37c39.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.931,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes62c38.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5623673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes63c38.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1272952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes37c37.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.611637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No67c37.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0956265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc931…7d46backed No63c35.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6414158.2%82 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfa2…6d7dbacked Yes46c35.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ae4…bd41backed No61c35.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.463345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcafd…b861backed No58c31.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.487272.2%52 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc06d…6732backed Yes45c31.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.112556%14 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb8…9b79backed No66c30.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.282254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes58c30.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.555,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe4c…ebeabacked Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.62040%8 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c67…a109backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.66041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes35c29.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1842544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c5…2420backed Yes45c29.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.997250%36 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes75c28.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9730046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4475…b483backed Yes51c27.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.452951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked No63c25.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1719160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3794…715cbacked Yes48c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes59c24.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0916832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes59c24.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.911931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c23.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.932,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No76c22.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.212,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No53c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.664,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x639d…3a02backed Yes57c21.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No68c21.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.561,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x422a…c395backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.89349.5%46 W · 47 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No68c19.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4951631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes62c19.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5340871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes59c19.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0512226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7293…98e8backed Yes77c19.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.381618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No70c16.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.472,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No73c14.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.719772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9c…1450backed No78c14.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9514251.4%73 W · 69 L-21.9wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-29.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.