Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x180146632a9fa5b34790176ea952ff70fa971f921c24fc40c5ce151d636a0524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,002$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.58 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 647.38$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 15c | 371.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 65c | 299.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 62c | 244.35$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 44c | 181.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 177.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 48c | 177.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 68c | 148.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 146.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 41c | 144.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…1215backed Yes | 38c | 143.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed Yes | 33c | 140.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 70c | 139.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 42c | 128.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 37c | 127.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 126.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 49c | 124.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 38c | 122.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 54c | 121.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 109.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 98.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 98.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 91.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 22c | 82.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 77.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 62c | 74.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed Yes | 65c | 61.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 63c | 60.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 27c | 59.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 69c | 58.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 41c | 53.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…88dbbacked Yes | 68c | 52.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 52.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 42c | 51.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 35c | 49.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 47.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…81e9backed Yes | 51c | 46.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…6eb0backed Yes | 45c | 46.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…05c7backed No | 67c | 44.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 41c | 44.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 37c | 43.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 37c | 39.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 62c | 38.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 63c | 38.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes | 37c | 37.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 37.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 63c | 35.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa2…6d7dbacked Yes | 46c | 35.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 61c | 35.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 58c | 31.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 45c | 31.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed No | 66c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 30.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 29.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 45c | 29.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 75c | 28.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed Yes | 51c | 27.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 63c | 25.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3794…715cbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 59c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes | 59c | 24.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 23.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 22.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…3a02backed Yes | 57c | 21.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 21.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 68c | 19.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 62c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 59c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…98e8backed Yes | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 16.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 73c | 14.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 14.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.