TailMyPicks
Market

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$426,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$436,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over44c295,962$131,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,175.432832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under55c62,201$34,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,990.2714756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under56c59,276$33,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,889.71,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under56c42,294$23,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,609.549455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under56c33,997$19,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,871.6278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,6007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under60c18,238$10,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,364.453,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Under56c7,777$4,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,421.882365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under56c6,932$3,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.5933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under57c6,000$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5807057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under57c6,000$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5806459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under57c4,992$2,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,171.2844749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Under55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Over45c3,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Under56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3201435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under57c2,208$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.2414157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over20c1,750$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.288630.2%26 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over44c1,233$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.491,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f91…40adbacked Under56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44056547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under56c985.69$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.2411056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Under57c918.24$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.128253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e20…b6b5backed Over45c866.67$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under57c840$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.222854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under57c840$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.28864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over44c800$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3448764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under56c699.92$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.9622747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under57c640$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.212162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2588461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25815453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25811860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2585052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under56c563$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.729459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under57c560$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.812757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa79a…88d0backed Under56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22520545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under56c430.76$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5331145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under57c420$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.615454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17210855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17233340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17213256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Over44c382.14$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.141450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over11c363.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406851.5%35 W · 33 L+10.9wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Under56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.142466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Under56c350$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1547052.9%37 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Under57c350$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.52748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under57c340$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.211458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under57c340$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.26556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under57c340$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.213859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under57c340$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.211259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under57c340$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.212458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under57c340$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under57c340$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.212358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under57c330$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.913957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under57c330$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.914355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under57c320$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.611563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7411…a2adbacked Under56c310.71$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under57c300.8$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.343268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1113053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1298261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12910360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1296959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12912858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Under56c283.16$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.199451.1%48 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under57c250$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under57c240$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under57c240$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.212259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Under57c240$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.26162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under57c240$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.212657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under57c240$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.213254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under57c240$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.29159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Over45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Under57c212.35$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.318852.3%46 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c10…829bbacked Under56c209$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.961384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+38.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Under57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865957.6%34 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Under57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c36…36a0backed Over45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Under57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f65…cdd3backed Under57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862568%17 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under55c199.98$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9913142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under57c190$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.79659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under57c180$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.412356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Under57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.445552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under65c173.85$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.252774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16e9…aeefbacked Under57c167.49$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.131163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6586…aa73backed Under56c160.91$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Under57c160$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.85459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked Under57c160$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.87057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3157…aecabacked Over45c158.67$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe174…f74bbacked Under55c149.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.49580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+186.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Under56c134$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.967452.7%39 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over44c133.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.522829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under66c124.92$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.512,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Under57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.65558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Under57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.65459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Under57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.611360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.