Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e14ce3ab39960bf26f5fdc0f9aa34332c8f3141287688bdc7243dd7832af000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 3,702$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 864.45$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…f616backed Over | 66c | 756.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…0070backed Under | 71c | 571.86$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 473.69$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.63 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 33c | 372$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 340.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 35c | 309.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 66c | 189$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 171.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 35c | 171.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Over | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Over | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 70c | 83.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 43c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 32c | 61.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Under | 54c | 56.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 46c | 56.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 40c | 56.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 60c | 55.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…c603backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 65c | 24.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 23.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 66c | 18.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.