NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Blues: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a9ea8659b65fa0fb3bf5760d52bf25fa51674c816f886ab7635da6812ca17d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 49c | 51,051$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,999.92 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Under | 51c | 17,899$9,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,770.56 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 17,694$9,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,670.17 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 9,823$5,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,814.29 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 4,520$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.85 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 2,835$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.4 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 54c | 1,411$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.11 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 52c | 1,095$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.6 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 51c | 980$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.2 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 955$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.41 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 722.2$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.21 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 653$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.97 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Over | 47c | 538.28$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.99 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 500$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 444$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 51c | 273$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…e3d9backed Over | 49c | 203.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 50c | 158.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 51c | 156$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 107.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 50c | 90.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 51c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…4f40backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 48c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Blues: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. BluesDucks won
- Ducks vs. Blues: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Blues (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.