Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52e82910a886b7e828af07c1fc029d43319e9b9a65cd1a5c7c0354cf328f10c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 67c | 434.69$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.54 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 48c | 350$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.05 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 46c | 276$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.01 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…156abacked Yes | 73c | 269.7$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 78c | 257.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 248.85$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 165.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 156.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 143.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 139.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 22c | 132$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 124.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 120.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 48c | 114.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 111.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 106.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 64c | 99.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 92.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 15c | 83.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 54c | 78.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 77.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 58.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 25c | 54.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…7d94backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 22c | 49.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 47c | 41.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 60c | 41.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 35c | 40.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 44c | 40.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 39.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 36.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 47c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 33.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 64c | 26.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 61c | 26.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 26.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 26.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 26.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 25.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc806…4703backed Yes | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 24.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 55c | 24.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 24.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 21.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 21.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 66c | 21.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 20.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 63c | 18.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.