Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52ea309060e1b102c197fafe7c6ce08067e61840b7ec08cd53ec6a8bba4d64d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,886 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 20c | 529.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes | 21c | 345.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 9c | 310.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked Yes | 4c | 300.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 293.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 10c | 234.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 79c | 222.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 25c | 172.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 14c | 146.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 144.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 142.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…23f5backed No | 73c | 137.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…8b94backed No | 74c | 135.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 103.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 29c | 94.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 81.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 18c | 79.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 27c | 73.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 23c | 64.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 28c | 63.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…60fcbacked No | 79c | 63.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 51.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…1a00backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 65c | 34.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 31.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 27.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 24.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 8°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 9°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.