Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17fbd08cd4005e373d71fbbb0995a756e6da36c8ccac611356927b31ebe8f83c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,752 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 31c | 297.23$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.07 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 274.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 272.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 29c | 242.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 232.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 71c | 212.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes | 65c | 201.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 14c | 141.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 77c | 138.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…076abacked Yes | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 98.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 45c | 93.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 45c | 89.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 89.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 78.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…154cbacked Yes | 40c | 75.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 75.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 68.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 42c | 67.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…6bf6backed Yes | 38c | 66.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 58c | 66.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…c30dbacked Yes | 31c | 64.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 59.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 58.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 28c | 58.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 56.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 41c | 54.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 54.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 50.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 48c | 47.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 44.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 45c | 42.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 27c | 39.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 65c | 38.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked Yes | 45c | 37.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 32c | 32.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99b…4d39backed Yes | 56c | 25.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 23.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 53c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 23.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 70c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…226abacked No | 79c | 17.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 8°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 9°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.