MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x533c0ed106c1fb8fb8f06844c4b7517c43cf3302ffd370fc7a8d658510e06f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,406 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 2,738$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.99 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 2,656$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.14 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 808.72$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.04 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 624$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.68 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 577.78$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed St. Louis Cardinals | 7c | 417$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 374$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.33 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 350$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 251.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 249.39$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.18 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 242$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 236$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 186$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 181.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 181.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 164.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 164.37$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…6a61backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 152.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 143$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…2c6dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 111.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 61.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 58.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 49.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…089dbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 41.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f9…ae42backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 35.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 31.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 30.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 25.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 20.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c46…4756backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…3c44backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…9014backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.