NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53469f2f5c05ee10d6eb6c316d109ee218fb6c25f8efe76db4f09f1fd101f333
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Nuggets, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 52c | 4,049$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…a8eebacked Hawks | 52c | 3,900$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…c6b7backed Nuggets | 48c | 3,900$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…88b2backed Nuggets | 48c | 1,856$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 48c | 1,254$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.92 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 44c | 510.35$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Nuggets | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 56c | 483.35$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.97 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Nuggets | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Nuggets | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Hawks | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Nuggets | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…128fbacked Hawks | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 48c | 79.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Nuggets | 45c | 68.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Hawks | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Hawks | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Nuggets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Nuggets | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Hawks | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Hawks | 51c | 37.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Nuggets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…db64backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. HawksNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.