NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e3d045cd7c67a2cf23996e75c1d3f790bfeb81fe3e671576175073eb9aa272a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Under | 61c | 1,769$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.22 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 1,737$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.86 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 49c | 611.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…9a99backed Over | 52c | 492.31$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 426.79$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.79 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 345$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 306.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Over | 53c | 266.04$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…1373backed Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec1…7ba9backed Over | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 49c | 206.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…0f92backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3705…75c9backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 76.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 47c | 71.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Under | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…33bfbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5this page
- Nuggets vs. HawksNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.