NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ab94cbcfdc45c6dc0013f8d70e6a4111bf93ceffc59436ba2d855669915cbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Nuggets, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Hawks | 61c | 14,162$8,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,523.22 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Nuggets | 39c | 14,000$5,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,460 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks | 55c | 2,615$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.64 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 43c | 2,574$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.72 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 55c | 2,031$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Nuggets | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Hawks | 57c | 1,468$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.77 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee86…e302backed Hawks | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets | 50c | 1,035$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.3 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Nuggets | 44c | 824$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.56 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Hawks | 50c | 802.32$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.14 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets | 46c | 781.82$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.74 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 39c | 771$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Nuggets | 49c | 635.4$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.57 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8567…514cbacked Hawks | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nuggets | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Hawks | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Nuggets | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Nuggets | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Hawks | 56c | 351$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Hawks | 48c | 270.92$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Nuggets | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Nuggets | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Nuggets | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993e…8ee9backed Nuggets | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Nuggets | 50c | 163.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nuggets | 49c | 158.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Nuggets | 46c | 150.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 48c | 115.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Nuggets | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 53c | 106.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Hawks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Nuggets | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6156…6ad5backed Nuggets | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Nuggets | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…e256backed Nuggets | 50c | 52.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Nuggets | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Nuggets | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…6c2abacked Nuggets | 50c | 49.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e6…5920backed Hawks | 51c | 40.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…f67fbacked Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Hawks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hawks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Hawks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Hawks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…87c9backed Nuggets | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…28aabacked Nuggets | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Hawks | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Hawks | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. HawksNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.